One thing that you can usually count on each April is one prediction…the New York Yankees being the team to beat in Major League Baseball.  2010 will be no different, with the Boston Red Sox, Tampa Bay Devil Rays, Baltimore Orioles and Toronto Blue Jays scrambling for second place and hoping for the Yankees to stumble.  The likelihood of a stumble this season appears slim, but that is why they play the games.

Jeter Looks For One More Ring

New York Yankees

The reigning World Series champs returned to their late 1990s form and displayed pure dominance during the playoffs as they kicked aside the Minnesota Twins, Los Angeles Angels and Philadelphia Phillies en route to their 27th championship.  Last year’s team had very few holes and they left little question as to who was the best team.

During the offseason, they Yankees didn’t sit idly by and revamped their roster for a run at back-to-back titles.   Aging All-Stars Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui were bid adieu along with starting CF Melky Cabrera.  Replacing these key components are OF Curtis Granderson, DH Nick Johnson and P Javier Vasquez.  Within the shakeup, they Yankees placed their left field fortunes in the hands of OF Brett Gardner with veteran free agent signee Randy Winn as a parachute.

No question, the Yankees offensive output will be down, but even with the departures, they’ll likely still put up huge numbers and possibly lead the league in most offensive stat categories.  The improvements come in the pitching rotation where they plugged the hole in the fifth starter position and returned Joba Chamberlain to the bullpen where he is better served.  Javier Vasquez and Phil Hughes will hold down the 4th and 5th starter spots for the best pitching rotation in baseball.  And should they get the expected 7 inning quality start, Chamberlain and Mariano Rivera will combine together again to close the door on any ideas of a late-run rally.

Key Additions: OF Curtis Granderson, 1B/DH Nick Johnson, OF Marcus Thames, P Javier Vazquez, OF Randy Winn

Key Subtractions: Melky Cabrera (OF),  Johnny Damon (OF), Hideki Matsui (DH),  Xavier Nady (OF), Chien-Ming Wang (P), Phil Coke (P), Brian Bruney (P)

Prediction: 102-60 (World Series Champs)

Boston Red Sox

The Boston Red Sox once again were the bridesmaids in the AL East in 2009, assuming their familiar position of watching the Yankees from the hindside.  After a strong start to the season led by Jason Bay, the Red Sox fizzled as their starting pitching fell apart and their offense went quiet.  Limping into the playoffs, the Los Angeles Angels made quick work of the Sox and sent them home for an early fall vacation.

The Red Sox went to work in the offseason, opening their wallets and spending big to secure free agents that will plug the holes which troubled them in 2009.  The big acquisition was John Lackey, whom Red Sox fans hope will be the Yankee killer he was in Los Angeles.  Despite recent injury woes, the Red Sox unloaded a huge contract on a pitcher that has flown under the radar for most of his career.  In Boston, he will be unable to avoid the spotlight and how he responds to the glare will be the big story in Beantown.  A player known to unleash on his teammates that make errors, Lackey will be under a microscope early and often.

Offensively, the Red Sox have major question marks.  The loss of Jason Bay is huge, especially when you replace him with journeyman Mike Cameron.  Bay was the lifeblood of last year’s offense, carrying the team of his back as David “Big Papi” Ortiz watched his skills evaporate as he came down from his steroids abuse behavior.  While Victor Martinez brings some added pop to the lineup, his hitting is already beginning to tail of with age and his ability to call a game behind the plate pales in comparison to Jason Varitek.   The left side of the infield is brand new, as Adrian Beltre and Marco Scutaro bring less than adequate pop to a struggling lineup.

The Red Sox changes really came off unbalanced.  The pitching staff was less of an issue than the bats in the field and they went for the arms in the free agency.  Acquisitions like Cameron and Beltre are unlikely to payoff and the Red Sox will struggle to earn second place in the division.

Key Additions: John Lackey (SP), Mike Cameron (OF), Adrian Beltre (3B), Marco Scutaro (SS)

Key Losses: Jason Bay (OF), Billy Wagner (RP)

Prediction: 90-72

Tampa Bay Rays

The biggest disappointment of 2009 was without a doubt the Tampa Bay Rays.  With huge expectations on their shoulders, the team got off to a rocky start and never recovered.  The starting pitching was average, the batting was underwhelming and the bullpen was a disaster.  It was a fraction of the performance from a team that surprised the baseball world and finally broke through in 2008.

Despite the issues, the Rays held pat during the offseason, being their usually frugal selves.  The main move was to secure Rafael Soriano, who will without question help them maintain a few more leads than they did in 2009.  But keeping up with the Yankees and Red Sox required more than hoping the young players will improve significantly after a poor campaign.  The pitching staff is anchored by Matt Garza and Jamie Shields, but the Rays success will hinge on the growth of Jeff Niemann, David Price and Wade Davis.  The offense can plate runs, but they aren’t going to knock the cover off the ball, so their success will ultimately reside on their bullpen delivering, which is unlikely.

Key Additions: Rafael Soriano (RP)

Key Losses: Akinori Iwamura (2B)

Prediction:  85-77

Baltimore Orioles

The Orioles finally look to be moving in the right direction in hopes of breaking the annual losing record streak that has stretched now for 13 years.   The Orioles made a few nice veteran additions during the offseason that will likely blend well with the stream of young future stars that the Orioles are banking their success upon.  The young offensive core is led by Nick Markakis, Adam Jones, Matt Wieters and Nolan Reimold.  On the mound, the Orioles have a legitimate AL Rookie of the Year candidate in Brian Matusz.

For the first time in many years, Orioles fan have some optimism that is well deserved.  The team should improve significantly over a lost 2009 campaign and set itself up to be a future contender in the AL East.

Key Additions: Kevin Millwood (SP), Mike Gonzalez (RP), Garrett Atkins (1B), Miguel Tejada (3B)

Key Losses: None

Prediction:  75 – 87

Toronto Blue Jays

The Blue Jays cut ties with GM J.P. Ricciardi after a host of awful contract extensions and inability to develop a minor league system to build for the future.  Ricciardi’s tenure has likely set this team on a direction to be the cellar dwellars for the next few years as they rebound from his poor decisions.

In the offseason, the big move was sending Roy Halladay on his way to a winning ballclub for minor-league prospect and budding star pitcher Kyle Drabek.  Unfortunately for Jays fans, Drabek is at least one, perhaps two years away from making it to the bigs, as is Brett Wallace, the budding third base prospect that was the other keystone of the Halladay trade.

For the Blue Jays just to stay out of the cellar, everything will need to go right.  With a below average pitching staff and struggling offensive output, the Jays will find a 4th place AL East finish to be a huge accomplishment.

Key Additions: Alex Gonzalez (SS), Kevin Gregg (RP)

Key Losses: Roy Halladay (SP), Rod Barajas (C)

Prediction:  64-98