The Atlanta Braves are picking up right where they left off after a sizzling September to close last season, blasting the Chicago Cubs for a 16-5 opening day victory. The day was highlighted by budding-superstar rookie Jason Heyward, who lived up to the hype by connecting on a three-run homer in his first major league at bat. A perfect start to manager Bobby Cox final season before heading into retirement.
Heyward Leads Braves To Victory
The day belonged to Jason Heyward. After ripping the cover off the ball at every level off the minor leagues, Heyward left the Braves’ organization no choice but to give him the starting nod, supplanting starter Matt Diaz in right field.
Beating out Diaz was no easy task, as he batted .313 with 13 homers in 2009 after supplanting Jeff Francoeur and sending him packing to the New York Mets
Heyward jumped from Single A to Triple A in 2009, bringing along with him comparisons to baseball greats Ken Griffey and Alex Rodriguez who arrived in the big leagues early. At age 20, Heyward stands 6′4″ and 220 pounds. He has multiple tools, hitting for average, hitting for power and stealing you a base when you need it.
The next big star.
Heyward and his teammates have the radar set on the Philadelphia Phillies. While the Braves made a number of moves to improve in the offseason with the acquisitions of Melky Cabrera, Troy Glaus and Billy Wagner, they have coupled budding stars with seasoned veterans to make a big run in 2010.
On the otherhand, the Phillies stood pat. They swapped Cliff Lee for Roy Halladay, which is just an even swap and they added an aging Placido Polanco to replace Pedro Feliz. With the biggest problem being their bullpen, the Phillies chose not to fill that hole and enter 2010 with a bullpen believed to be worse than one of baseball worst pens in 2009. And struggling closer Brad Lidge has started the season on the DL.
If Opening Day is a sign of things to come, the Phillies may be struggling to keep up with the Braves in 2010. While the Phillies have made it to back to back World Series, they did so in unimpressively in many baseball insiders eyes. Thanks to an unbalanced schedule that increases the number of divisional games to 18, the Phillies were able to tee off on the struggling NL East teams. In contrast, St. Louis and Chicago had to struggle to get into the playoffs in the much tougher NL Central and the Dodgers and Rockies had to fend for their lives in the NL West. The Phillies benefited tremendously with 72 games against their NL East combatants.
The Phillies won’t have that luxury this season thanks to the Braves, as well as the improved Florida Marlins and New York Mets. During the Phillies’ World Series Championship run they recorded a losing record against winning-record teams and in 2009 they posted just a breakeven record against the best team’s in baseball. The shortened rotation and rosters in the playoff disguised an incomplete team that struggled over the course of 162 game season. At 19 players, the Phillies are the best team in baseball. At 24 players, they are just slightly better than average.
The Phillies now have more competition that will gnaw at the weaknesses by making the regular season more grueling. With the increased prominence of the Braves and other NL East teams, the Phillies no longer have rollover games against Triple A laden squads. The glaring holes at the back of the rotation and in the bullpen will be ever present for the Phillies this year and Jason Heyward, along with his Braves, are ready to take their place at the top of the heap.
A comeback story is the most heartwarming situation in sports. Everyone likes to pull for that guy that is down and out, trying to make it back. Yesterday, the spotlight was on former Milwaukee Brewers pitcher Ben Sheets as he hosted a workout at the University of Louisiana at Monroe.
Sheets Impresses At Workout
Sheets put together perhaps his best year in 2008, dueling side-by-side with C.C. Sabathia down the stretch as they helped get the Brewers into the playoffs. Sheets season came to an unfortunate early end due to a torn flexor tendon in his throwing arm elbow.
Sheets had hoped that rest would allow for the elbow to get heal, but a physical exam with the Texas Rangers in February 2009 revealed otherwise. Sheets opted for surgery, having renowned orthopedic surgeon Dr. James Andrews conduct the repairs. The surgery was covered by the Milwaukee Brewers despite no longer having a contract with them given he was placed on their disabled list due to the injury.
According to a report on AOL Fanhouse, Sheets first threw 20 fastballs during his workout, maxing the radar gun at 91 mph. After a quick break, he threw a second session of 20 pitches, mixing in curveballs. His third session consisted of 10 pitches, where Sheets’ fastball was clocked at a top speed of 88 mph. The report noted that Sheets appeared to be “gassed,” near the end of the session.
Not too bad for a guy that hasn’t thrown meaningfully in 16 months.
He had a number of scouts from ballclubs in attendance to watch. The teams reviewing Sheets included the Chicago Cubs, New York Mets, Texas Rangers, Los Angeles Dodgers, Philadelphia Phillies, Toronto Blue Jays, Oakland Athletics, and Cincinnati Reds. The Cubs, Mets and Rangers are believed to be the favorites.
Whoever gets Sheets will likely get a major bargain. Given the injury, Sheets cannot demand a lengthy contract or any guarantees. The contract will be incentive laden, so whatever club gets him pays for performance. If Sheets can return to the form he displayed in 2008, the club that takes the risk on him could be rewarded with a top of the rotation stud at a great price.
At this point, I’d put my money on the Texas Rangers. With his former pitching coach Mike Maddux now heading the staff, it looks like the most appropriate landing spot. Not to mention the respect and courtesy that the Rangers organization has shown Sheets during his recovery. It would be nice to see a player show the same respect back to a team that cared about him, even if they don’t bring the best offer to the table.
Reports have begun to swirl of an imminent trade that will bring pitcher Roy Halladay to the Philadephia Phillies in a three-team trade that includes both the Toronto Blue Jays and Seattle Mariners. The deal hinges on Halladay signing a three-year contract extension reportedly worth $60 million. The contract is expected to include performance vesting options that can trigger to extend the deal beyond the three years.
To make the deal happen, the Phillies reportedly will trade its pitching ace and postseason stud Cliff Lee to the Seattle Mariners and send three minor leaguers believed to be catcher Travis d’Arnaud, outfielder Michael Taylor, and top prospect pitcher Kyle Drabek to the Toronto Blue Jays. The Phillies would receive two minor leaguers Phillippe Aumont and Tyson Gillies from the Seattle Mariners farm system.
The deal is a head scratcher. Cliff Lee proved during the postseason he is an ace, someone you hand the ball when you need to win a game. Without Lee, the Phillies get swept by the Yankees in the World Series. While Halladay has an impressive resume, he has pitched in relative obscurity in Toronto without big game pressure and media focus on every pitch. There are huge question marks on Halladay’s mental makeup to handle such pressure, as the New York Yankees and Boston have taken off the table talks of a contract extension until Halladay proves he can pitch on a bigger stage.
The subplot lost in this story are the additional price tags with the prospects. Kyle Drabek was the unquestioned top pitching prospect in minor league baseball in 2009, a guaranteed major leaguer believed to have ace potential. Michael Taylor was to be the guy to take over in left field in Philadelphia after batting .320 with 20 HRs and 21 SBs in 2009. Given Raul Ibanez’s awful decline in the second half of last season, Taylor was the guy to potentially push Ibanez into early retirement. These guys are not prospects, they are major leaguers in waiting.
The details and sensibility of this trade goes beyond just the players being mentioned here, as you have to consider in the equation the cost of the Cliff Lee service rental. To obtain Lee for their unsuccessful World Series run, Philadelphia unloaded half of their minor league system. Included in that deal were Carlos Carrasco, Jason Donald, Lou Marson and Jason Knapp. When you add this into the deal, it means the Phillies have given up six of their top eight prospects for Halladay.
The Phillies are clearly gambling for short-term wins and mortgaging their long-term success. With a team that is aging and moving from its prime into sunset years, lets hope for Ruben Amaro Jr’s sake the moves payoff. If they don’t, he’ll be the fall guy and Phillies fans will pay a significant price for years to come.
Major League Baseball’s free agency period kicked off on November 5th with a flurry of activity as 171 players filed and flooded the marketplace with baseball job seekers. We are now one month into the process and only 15 signings have occurred. This lack of activity is finally displaying some prudence by team owners in their spending activities, although the contract amount given to Placido Polanco still has many scratching their heads.
Here’s my breakdown on the Top 10 available free agents and where they will likely land:
John Lackey
Without question, the best player on the market. Given his performance in the ALCS, Lackey showed he is the man to give the ball to when it counts. He is a #1 starter and will be paid like one. Right now, it appears that the Mets and Red Sox are the leaders in the hunt for his services. But don’t be surprised if the Texas Rangers make a push to sign him.
Prediction: New York Mets
Matt Holliday
Holliday showed scouts last year that his place is in the NL after proving to be nothing but an average player when facing more curveballs and change ups in the AL. Don’t expect any AL teams to be hunting for Holiday’s services. Re-signing with the Cardinals makes a lot of sense, as he proved to be a great complement to Pujols in the lineup. I see the other major suitor for Holliday this winter to be San Fran. The Giants are in desperate need for hitting and will be going after Holliday hard. Keep an eye on the Astros and Braves making a play as well.
Prediction: San Francisco Giants
Vladimir Guerrero
Vlad’s playing days in Anaheim are over. Despite his recent injury woes, he is still one of the most dangerous hitters in the game. I don’t think we’ll see Vlad going back to the NL, as his body no longer can withstand the rigors of a 162 game season. Look for him to land in a DH role somewhere in the AL. The most likely landing spots are Detroit, Minnesota and Chicago (AL). All have a need for a solid middle of the lineup bat and have an open spot for him at the DH position.
Prediction: Chicago White Sox
Jason Bay
One of the highlights of the Red Sox’ dismal season, Bay displayed his tools that make him one of the more desired players in free agency. One of the concerns coming out of Pittsburgh was Bay’s ability to play in the spotlight. He showed that wasn’t an issue at all. At 31, Bay is still in his prime and can be a solid producer for years to come. There are a slew of teams that are going to be after Bay, including Chicago (AL), St. Louis, San Fran, New York (AL), New York (NL), Seattle, and Atlanta. This is not to mention the Red Sox want him back.
Prediction: New York Yankees
Johnny Damon
His agent Scott Boras has sealed his doom in New York. There is no love lost between Cashman and Boras. Damon’s demands are outrageous given his declining skill sets. His outfield range is gone, he has no arm and has lost a step on the base paths. I expect Damon to be this year’s Bobby Abreau and he will price himself right out of the market. Boras will leave him hanging out there to take a beating. Whatever team is not able to fill their needs early will lean to Damon come March. I am putting my money on either the Mets or Atlanta here.
Prediction: Atlanta Braves Jarrod Washburn
Washburn couldn’t have picked a better year to shine in 2009. Heavily sought after during the trading deadline, Washburn unfortunately went down due to a lingering issue with his planting knee that got him hammered in his final few starts with Detroit. Washburn still has great stuff and has a solid 2-3 years left in his arm. The Yankees have been enamored with Washburn for years and will likely finally score him. Boston will be in the mix mainly to just drive up the price knowing the Yanks love this guy.
Prediction: New York Yankees
Rich Harden
The super-talented, oft-injured Cub will generate a lot of interest. It’s hard to believe Harden has been in the league for so long and he is still just 28 years old. Going back to Chicago doesn’t look likely given the disappointment in his durability. Cost conscious teams are likely to stay away. I see the biggest interest coming from Boston, Los Angeles (AL), New York (NL) and Philadelphia. In the end, Philly and the Mets will likely shy away. Boston needs to fill in some holes in the staff, look for them to take the risk.
Prediction: Boston Red Sox
Fernando Rodney
This guy strikes me as someone that wants to win. His days in Detroit are over and he is likely going to sign with a contender and accept a setup role that could turn into a stopper job if called upon. While Seattle, Florida and Tampa Bay may make a push for Rodney, Philadelphia will generate interest with him and they need him more than anyone. Rodney can flourish in setup or closing role, he’s just that versatile. His ability to take over for Lidge if he continues to struggle makes Rodney enticing.
Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies
Jose Valverde
Without question the best closer on the market. Unfortunately for Valverde, none of the big market teams that can offer an outlandish contract need a stopper. Just the wrong year to be a free agent stopper. Valverde will generate some interest from Tampa, Seattle, Florida and perhaps Chicago (NL). Houston has offered arbitration and I wouldn’t be shocked if Valverde accepted it. He stands a great chance at getting a nice ruling in his favor and he can step back out in the market next season when the Yankees may be looking for Rivera’s replacement.
Prediction: Houston Astros Miguel Tejada
Despite the steroids baggage that comes with Tejada, the guy continues to smash the ball and shows no signs of decline. Unbelievably durable, you cannot dismiss this guy earns his paycheck. There is not much of a market out theew for shortstops given Boston and Toronto have filled their needs. Houston, Detroit and Minnesota all have issues at the position and need to fill the hole with a dependable player.
Prediction: Detroit Tigers
Hideki Matsui
The World Series MVP is on the market, but his inability to play the field any longer given his age make him a difficult pursuit for most teams. While Matsui had a productive 2009 season, his inflexibility to play the field hurt the Yankees ability to rotate its aging team. The Yankees need to open up a hole to allow Jorge Posada’s bat at DH now that he is going to be needing more off days behind the plate. This signals an unlikely re-signing unless Matsui takes a huge paycut. If Yanks choose not to bring him back, Seattle is the only other team that appears to make sense.
Prediction: Seattle Mariners
Check back in March to see how close I was on these predictions. It’s going to be a real interesting offseason.
The Philadelphia Phillies and Placido Polanco came to agreement on a three year, $18 million contract to play third base for the National League champions. The contract also includes a mutual option for a fourth year at $5.5 million.
Given the economic climate, the contract amount of this signing is surprising. At age 34, Polanco is clearly on the downside of an otherwise average career. While still sure-handed with the glove, Polanco posted a .285 batting average this past season, his lowest in ten years. This declining batting average is even more concerning given he is batting in spacious Comerica Park that is made for his style of hitting.
Third base was not a big concern for the Phillies. Pedro Feliz provided stellar defense and solid bat in the middle of the lineup. Furthermore, he would have cost the Phillies a lot less to bring back, both in annual salary and the number of committed years.
The signing of Polanco does not address the major needs for the Phillies, which reside entirely in their pitching staff. The Phillies enter 2010 with one reliable stater, a potential sophmore jinx whose WHIP and BAA ballooned in the second half and a former ace that is a shadow of his former self. Thrown in a bullpen that squandered more leads than any other in baseball and you’ve got lots of work to do.
If the Phillies want to repeat in the NL again in 2010, it will require an overhaul of a pitching staff that less than ordinary when it counted this past October. Overpaying for second-tier infielders on their way to retirement is not a good start to the offseason.
Matt Holliday
Jason Bay
Jarrod Washburn
Fernando Rodney
Without question the best closer on the market. Unfortunately for Valverde, none of the big market teams that can offer an outlandish contract need a stopper. Just the wrong year to be a free agent stopper. Valverde will generate some interest from Tampa, Seattle, Florida and perhaps Chicago (NL). Houston has offered arbitration and I wouldn’t be shocked if Valverde accepted it. He stands a great chance at getting a nice ruling in his favor and he can step back out in the market next season when the Yankees may be looking for Rivera’s replacement.
Miguel Tejada
