There is only one thing that is a certainty in today’s AFC Championship Game, there will be a first-year NFL coach leading one of the team’s in Super Bowl XLIV.  Either the Indianapolis Colts’ Jim Caldwell or the New York Jets’ Rex Ryan will earn the opportunity to possibly become just the third coach in NFL history to win the Super Bowl in their rookie coaching season.

After that, its anyone’s guess how this game will play out.

The AFC Championship game pits two teams with extremely contrasting styles.  The Colts are a pass-happy squad that plays with finesse on both sides of the ball.  The Jets are a grind-it-out running squad that plays with a smash-mouth attitude for sixty minutes.

These teams met during Week 16 of the season in an infamous game in which the Colts pulled Peyton Manning and other key starters to ensure their health for the playoffs rather than shoot for an undefeated season.  Manning was relieved with the Colts up 15-10, but the Jets would run off 19 unanswered points to end the Colts perfect season.

Thanks to their decision to “forfeit” the game, the Colts catapulted the Jets into the playoffs, leading to a rematch with the top-rated defense in the NFL.

Before leaving the game, Manning was on fire, completing 66% of his passes and accumulating 192 passing yards in just a little over two quarters.  His performance was the most successful of the season by an opposing quarterback against the Jets.  But his removal has sparked lots of questions of whether Manning would have continued that dominance to the end of the game.

The offensive game plan of these two teams are completely predictable.  The Colts will pass the ball.  The Jets will run the ball.  The winner will be decided by which team will deliver its game plan on defense.

What happened in Week 16 is meaningless.

The Jets defense led the NFL by allowing just 153 yards passing per game during the regular season, stunting its opponents with a solid pass rush and terrific man-to-man pass coverage led by All-Pro cornerback Darrelle Revis.  The Colts offense rated second in the NFL in passing offense despite comfortably winning many of its games during the regular season.

While the Manning to Reggie Wayne combination still rated as tops in the NFL, it was the emergence of newcomers Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon that defined their successful season.  With an expected Revis-Wayne matchup leaning to the Jets, Collie and Garcon must step up in the spotlight to ensure the Colts success on offense.

When the Jets have the ball, they will look to establish the NFL’s top-rated running attack with force.  While the Colts rated 24th overall against the run, their per game 127 rushing yards against is a bit deceiving.  In the two final games when the Colts rested their starters, they gave up 450 rushing yards.  Subtract those two outings, they held opponents to 98 yards per game, good for 8th in the NFL.  And this includes five games against AFC  Pro Bowlers Chris Johnson, Maurice Jones-Drew and Ray Rice.

The AFC Championship game will no doubt be a battle of wills.  Finesse versus Toughness.  Execution versus Attitude.

Expect the Colts to come out on top.  The difference maker will be the seen at the quarterback position.  If the Colts can get out to an early lead and push the Jets to pass the ball, expect Mark Sanchez to finally show that he is a mistake-prone rookie and the Colts will cruise to victory.

Prediction:  Colts 27, Jets 13.

Tags: austin collie, darrelle revis, Indianapolis Colts, Jim Caldwell, New York Jets, nfl playoffs, Peyton Manning, pierre garcon, Reggie Wayne, rex ryan

This entry was posted on Sunday, January 24th, 2010 at 12:33 pm and is filed under Indianapolis Colts, New York Jets, nfl. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.